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【國際關係深度評 🇮🇱🇷🇺】 以色列的大國外交：其實和俄羅斯也很密切
🕑 Added 2024-10-04 07:01:01 +0000 UTC「以色列的後台是美國」，這是國際社會的普遍認知。其實以色列作為一個我們多次解釋過的「超級國家」，對小國可以無視一切國際法，對大國外交卻一直很有心得，例如和俄羅斯、中國，都可以同時保持友好。我們可以回顧一個案例：耶路撒冷作為以色列官方定義的首都，其實俄羅斯承認要比美國更早，也更有技巧。
特朗普承認耶路撒冷是以色列首都在2017年，一年前，俄羅斯外交部卻已經就耶路撒冷問題發表聲明。聲明首先重申，支持聯合國以往通過的以巴問題解決方案原則，包括以東耶路撒冷為未來巴勒斯坦國的首都；與此同時，在上述前提下，俄羅斯會視西耶路撒冷為以色列的首都。
這份聲明高明之處，在於各方都能各取所需。首先，俄羅斯把一切原則都演繹為「聯合國方案」的推演，也就是一切尊重聯合國，與特朗普處處跟聯合國對着幹截然不同，起碼字眼上、禮貌上、形式上給足面子。
對以色列而言，俄羅斯「視西耶路撒冷為以色列首都」，屬於現在進行式；而於巴勒斯坦獲普遍承認立國前，「視東耶路撒冷為未來巴勒斯坦國首都」，則屬於將來式，所以也是一大外交成就。但對巴勒斯坦而言，俄羅斯這態度，總算明確承認東耶路撒冷屬於巴勒斯坦，又比美國要進了一步；加上俄羅斯的「西耶路撒冷宣言」，理論上只是一個邏輯推論，頭盔充足，所以也沒有激起群眾任何反彈。
反觀特朗普，宣佈承認整個耶路撒冷為以色列首都，更要搬遷美國大使館到耶路撒冷，外交上的迴旋空間少了很多，更將「道德高地」拱手相讓。日後美國要調解中東，將會更缺乏說服力；反而俄羅斯卻得到更大話語權，各方都爭相拉攏。
值得注意的是，俄羅斯與以巴雙方的關係一直良好，例如是中東和平四方集團成員之一，和雙方都有特殊淵源。前蘇聯除了在二戰時接收大量猶太人，亦有份推動以色列立國，更是第二個承認以色列合法地位的國家。以色列有大量由俄羅斯移民來的猶太人，擁有俄羅斯境外最大的俄語族群之一，蘇聯更一度希望令以色列成為中東第一個共產政權。
雖然以色列立國後選擇倒向西方，但普京的俄羅斯政府卻完全消化了冷戰時代的隔閡，和以色列建立了全方位緊密關係。此外，普京與內塔尼亞胡的私交甚好，不像美國不時有討厭以色列領袖的總統出現，例如前總統奧巴馬和內塔尼亞胡之間，就鬧得很僵。
另一方面，冷戰期間，蘇聯國策是拉攏「亞非拉」國家，巴勒斯坦問題是團結阿拉伯的核心議題，所以一直利用巴勒斯坦為槓桿。初時蘇聯還對巴勒斯坦解放組織有戒心，直至阿拉發特接任巴解主席前，親自到訪莫斯科，才得到信任。自始雙方關係密切，蘇聯更派KGB訓練巴解成員。蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯依然支持阿拉發特的接班人阿巴斯，甚至為巴勒斯坦爭取在聯合國的觀察員國地位，不把管理加沙地帶的哈馬斯為恐怖組織，又多次譴責以色列在加沙的行動，都令巴勒斯坦人普遍對俄羅斯存有好感。
普京努力平衡以巴雙方，除了為增加俄羅斯的國際影響力，也是利用美國出現孤立主義，乘虛而入。目前中東大戰一觸即發，除了美國，也不能忘記俄羅斯同樣可以扮演角色，而怎樣利用這個戰場有利自身在烏克蘭的處境，肯定也是普京念茲在茲的事。
▶️ 以色列前司法高官 Rousso 教授親自講解：清除哈瑪斯之後，加沙地帶真的可以有效管治嗎？
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9FAuZJJ66Y
Comments
堅離地書院 College
Israel is clever enough to play around US, Russia and China. Won't lean on one side, not even during the Cold War.
堅離地書院 College
消息不明確，可能是附近 敘利亞內戰期間，以色列也射過俄羅斯戰機，一定是紅線前停下來
KTH
但係無耐之前以色列攻擊敍利亞境內既俄羅斯軍事設施喎。。。以色列開始唔妥俄羅斯？
George
Israel is surrounded on three out of five borders: Southern Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, which are not by conventional states but by militias disguised as civilians, armed with rockets, and embedded within civilian populations. The safety of the border with the Sinai Peninsula is questionable when the situation spirals out of control. Faced with such a threat, Israel has always been a nation that spares no effort in ensuring its survival. Any danger to its existence is considered justifiable grounds for taking all necessary measures to neutralize it, and its resolve to survive is as strong as the CCP’s morbid obsession with the longevity of its regime. This includes responding in kind, adhering to the principle of an eye for an eye, against any entity—be it leaders with whom Israel previously had amicable relations—that poses a direct or indirect threat to its survival. Of course, Netanyahu is happy to have the US do this favor for him. The US and Israel must now recognize the intertwined threats in Europe and the Middle East: both Russia and Iran seek to challenge American power and establish new orders in their respective regions. For years, Iran and Russia—together with two rogue regimes in the East—have maintained an alliance to counter U.S. influence in Asia, Europe, and elsewhere, specifically in the Middle East and Africa by engaging in proxy wars against Western-backed governments. Iran supports and funds the terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, posing a threat to Israeli security. Russia facilitates Iran's actions by providing weapons and diplomatic protection. The conflict in Ukraine serves as a critical test of the U.S. and NATO's willingness to confront Russian aggression. A Russian victory would embolden Iran in its anti-Israel efforts. Conversely, weakening or defeating Russia in its invasion of Ukraine would indirectly impede Iran's ambitions that are expanded through a close partnership with its proxies and by acting as a major arms supplier to them. The Russian invasion and the Israel-Iran tensions are inherently linked. Preventing Russian expansion in Ukraine is vital for upholding international norms and protecting allies, as is countering Iranian threats to Israel. By the same token, allowing Russia to triumph in Ukraine or pressuring Zelenskyy to concede to Putin's terms risks escalating conflict with Iran through Hezbollah's actions against Israel. Success in Ukraine is therefore pivotal for broader regional stability. To maintain US role as the global policeman, the Biden administration, or whoever in the White House next January, must convey to the international community the interconnected nature of the ongoing conflicts—the Russo-Ukrainian war and Israel-Iran tensions—as crucial fronts in countering the regional alliance between Russia and Iran, which supports militant groups posing serious threats to the interests of the U.S. and the West. Hesitation in lifting the restrictions against Ukraine on the long-range weapons, reluctance to candidly support its longtime Middle East ally and failure to address the current challenges properly could lead to a world in new orders defined by authoritarian regimes.
