simonshen
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【讀者分享 🇺🇸】 我為何對特朗普2.0任期充滿憂慮（下）
🕑 Added 2024-11-23 09:01:02 +0000 UTC【按：我們早前分享過一位會員就「為甚麼支持特朗普」撰寫的五千字長文，引起不少討論。這次我們邀請了另一位觀點相反的會員，分享他為甚麼對特朗普2.0任期充滿憂慮，他也很有心的用英文撰寫了三千字長文，現分兩日分享如下。希望大家珍惜和而不同的討論空間，繼續給予建設性回應，讓我們可以繼續互相交流切磋。】
Ignoring the Presidential Transition Act
The Presidential Transition Act requires candidates from major parties to sign memorandums of understanding with the current President and the General Services Administration (GSA). These
agreements grant access to facilities, documents, executive branch employees, and national security information during the transition period between the election and the inauguration. They also include an ethics plan to ensure accountability.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) raised concerns in a letter to Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, highlighting the campaign’s failure to enter into these required agreements. Raskin warned that ignoring this obligation could severely hinder the transfer of power and compromise national security. However, T2 has completely disregarded this legal requirement, further undermining the integrity of the process.
RFK Jr. as Secretary of Health & Human Services (HHS)
T2’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health & Human Services (HHS) is particularly troubling. Kennedy is a well-known vaccine skeptic, and his leadership could significantly harm public health efforts. His potential actions include:
· Undermining Vaccination Efforts: Discouraging Americans from receiving recommended vaccines.
· Cutting Critical Programs: Reducing funding for or eliminating departments within health agencies.
· Promoting Fringe Policies: Advocating for removing fluoride from drinking water and targeting food and chemical additives instead of focusing on evidence-based health policies.
At the end of T1’s term, over 1 million Americans died due to the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. T1’s chaotic response was a major factor in his election loss. With RFK Jr. at the helm of HHS, one could question whether T2 is enacting a form of retribution, allowing public health policies to fail and causing further loss of life. If this scenario unfolds, T2’s disregard for public welfare would be undeniable, yet he would remain immune from prosecution under the Supreme Court’s immunity doctrine.
Corruption and Nepotism
T2’s tenure has been marked by blatant corruption and nepotism. The Secret Service, tasked with protecting T2 and his family, has spent nearly $2 million of taxpayer money at Trump- owned properties. These expenses include exorbitant charges such as:
· Hotel Room Rates: As high as $1,185 per room per night, nearly five times the government rate set by the General Services Administration.
· Misleading Claims: Despite Eric Trump’s 2020 statement that rooms were provided “at cost,” evidence shows the Secret Service was overcharged, including $3 for a bottle of water at Mar-a-Lago.
These practices reflect a troubling blend of self-enrichment and disregard for taxpayer funds, setting a dangerous precedent for corruption at the highest levels of government.
Foreign Influence and Financial Conflicts of Interest
Documents released by the House Oversight and Reform Committee reveal extravagant spending by foreign leaders at T1’s luxury hotel in Washington, D.C. The committee suggests this spending may have violated T1’s oath of office by distorting U.S. foreign policy for personal financial gain. Government officials from Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and China collectively spent over $750,000 at the Trump International Hotel during his presidency.
T1 has reportedly amassed more than 3,500 conflicts of interest through his businesses. According to tracking by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), this includes visits from at least 150 foreign government officials to properties he still owns and profits from. These officials and entities have spent tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars at these properties, effectively allowing event hosts to curry favor with the Trump administration while personally enriching Trump.
T1’s decision to retain ownership and financial control of the Trump Organization while serving as President laid the foundation for unprecedented levels of presidential corruption.
Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and Questionable Deals
On March 29, 2017, Ivanka Trump, T1’s eldest daughter, became an official government employee, joining her husband, Jared Kushner, as an adviser to the President. In 2022, The New York Times reported that Kushner’s close relationship with Saudi Arabia during T1’s presidency paid off when the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund invested $2 billion in his newly formed private equity firm.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government granted 41 trademarks to companies linked to Ivanka Trump by April 2019. Trademarks she applied for after her father became President were approved approximately 40% faster than those she submitted before T1’s 2016 election victory, according to Forbes senior editor Dan Alexander. These approvals raise serious concerns about whether Ivanka Trump’s business interests unfairly benefited from her father’s presidency.
FCC Controversy and Potential Elon Musk Favoritism
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC), under its Democratic majority, denied Elon Musk’s Starlink bid to provide rural broadband coverage. The agency determined that Starlink had not demonstrated the capability to meet the program’s requirements, which involved providing internet to over 600,000 locations in 35 states. The FCC cited “numerous financial and
technical deficiencies” in Starlink’s application and noted that its internet speeds were insufficient to meet the program’s demands.
Starlink appealed the FCC’s decision, but the agency upheld its rejection after further review. In his second administration, T2 has nominated Brendan Carr to lead the FCC. Carr, a Republican, has been a vocal supporter of Elon Musk’s businesses. If confirmed, Carr’s appointment could potentially benefit Musk financially by reshaping FCC decisions in his favor, raising concerns about favoritism and regulatory bias under T2’s leadership.
Elon Musk’s Role as Czar of DOGE
T2 has appointed Elon Musk as the Czar of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). While this is not a formal government agency, the role gives Musk the authority to scrutinize agencies like the FCC and recommend budget cuts. This creates a potential conflict of interest— Musk, whose companies have faced regulatory scrutiny by the FCC, would now have the ability to push back against the agency. This dynamic mirrors the rise of oligarchs in countries like Russia, where powerful individuals leverage government influence for personal gain.
Economy
T2 has promised sweeping economic changes, including a 20% across-the-board tariff on imports worldwide and tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China. He has also vowed to execute the largest deportation effort in U.S. history, claiming that budget constraints will not hinder this initiative. Occasionally, T2 has hinted at reforms targeting high-skill immigration, though specifics remain vague.
Economists largely agree that T2’s tariff policies could raise consumer prices and drive up inflation, though the extent of these effects is debated. The uncertainty surrounding his economic policies leaves both businesses and consumers bracing for potential disruptions.
Foreign Policy
This area is your expertise, and I’ve read your articles on the Ukraine-Russia peace deal, though I find your perspective overly optimistic. T2 has already displayed authoritarian tendencies reminiscent of historical figures like Hitler. Dictators often admire each other, and T2’s relationship with global strongmen suggests little hope for him using Putin to counterbalance Xi Jinping.
All it would take for Xi to secure T2’s favor is a lucrative deal allowing Trump-branded hotels and golf resorts in China after T2’s presidency. Such a partnership would ease economic pressure on China over time. Moreover, China’s established power makes it an unlikely target for sustained containment by T2.
A stark example of T2’s foreign policy approach is his stance on Gaza. Jared Kushner, T2’s former White House adviser and son-in-law, once referred to Gaza’s “waterfront property” as having "very valuable" potential, suggesting that civilians could be removed to facilitate redevelopment while Israel "cleans up" the area. Meanwhile, T2’s appointment of Mike Huckabee as U.S. Ambassador to Israel underscores his alignment with far-right Israeli policies. Huckabee has denied the legitimacy of West Bank and Gaza settlements, fully endorsing the actions of Israel's leadership under Netanyahu.
In Taiwan, T2’s proposed tariffs on semiconductor chips could harm AI trade, impacting companies like Nvidia. Amid rising tensions, U.S. officials believe Xi Jinping has instructed China’s military to prepare for the possible seizure of Taiwan by 2027—potentially during T2’s term. The question remains: could Peter Hegseth, as Defense Secretary, manage such a crisis? The answer seems clear—don’t kid yourself.
Questionable Diplomatic Appointments
In a surprising development, Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani has met with Elon Musk. Musk, despite his expertise in technology, has no background in international relations. This kind of unorthodox appointment mirrors practices often seen in authoritarian regimes like China, where 外行領導內行 (unqualified outsiders lead professionals) is a common phenomenon.
In conclusion, the greatest damage posed by Trump 2.0 is the chilling effect on those who dare to speak out against him. On Monday, November 18, 2024, “Morning Joe” co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski made a dramatic announcement: they had visited Mar-a-Lago the previous week for a fence-mending meeting with President-elect Donald Trump. This revelation came as a shock, considering their outspoken criticism of Trump over the past eight years.
Their actions appear to stem from fear of retribution by the incoming administration, underscoring a troubling new reality. This kind of capitulation could become a recurring scene in America over the next four years. While democracy in the U.S. may not be dead, it is undeniably entering a dark and precarious phase.
This is why I am deeply worried and concerned.
⏺ 【讀者分享：美國大選特輯🇺🇸】 支持侵侵的心路歷程：從一而終的反共抗獨裁
https://www.patreon.com/posts/115287257
Comments
INH
Joe Rogan直接問佢選舉舞弊嘅證據，佢到而家都仲未攞得出
Simon S Yam
X.com is not Twitter with safeguard on misinformation and disinformation team. So read the messages there with a grain of salt and fact check somewhere else. https://www.themainewire.com/2024/09/trump-calls-out-pelosi-for-latest-insider-trading-controversy/
悉尼 袋鼠
究竟特朗普有全盤計劃，抑或只係响幾個Talking points 之間 "weaving" in and out，其實可以將幾個論點做一個如意算盤，當中包括 1. 關稅由外國人支付 (sic)，增加美國政府收入 2. 聯邦政府裁員，減少政府開支 3. 削減退伍軍人福利 （Project 2025） 4. 慳落呢啲錢，用嚟減稅 不過呢個如意算盤係打唔響，因為 1. 完全錯晒。而且美國人要交關稅，直接影響整體消費。 2, 3 直接影響個別群組消費，而且有消費鏈會有連鎖反應。裁員自然同時會裁減聯邦服務，多數要由州政府承擔 — 但無跡象顯示，聯邦及州之間有任何共識。 4. 結論係消費者意慾下降，商業盈利受損，公司需要裁員，失業（或怕失業）消費者意慾再度下降，vicious cycle。政府財赤只會增加 此外，移民政策，將1千多萬非法移民遞解出境，若操之過急，直接影響國內經濟產能。而未有任何替代方案，就進行聯邦政府大規模裁員，除咗對經濟體系有負面影響，國防及外交亦會出問題。
悉尼 袋鼠
雖然關稅嘅直接影響，經濟理論就係入口商入少咗貨**，消費者付出金錢更多。但係單純睇關稅收入，因為係貨唔由入口商清關時支付，同海外生產商無關，入口商轉嫁俾消費者（再加markup），賬面上所有美國關稅係全數由美國消費者承擔。 舉個例，美國入口商由中国買人玩具，出廠價$10 (加運費，省略)，無關稅入境，打 100% markup 賣 $20。假如打60%關稅，中国都係$10賣俾入口商，但係到岸清關，美國海關向入口商收 $6，羊毛出在羊身上，全數轉嫁去消費者，就算嗰$6唔打markup，售價都要$26。 至於話關稅有助將生產轉回美國，有一點好多分析忽略，就係美國究竟有無剩餘及合適嘅產能去進行生產。而家失業率4.1%，勞工市場緊絀，扯高人工去進行啲低產值生產之餘，同時係蠶食咗國內高增值生產嘅資源。 一啲戰略生產係有經濟以外嘅考量，但係 across the board 增加關稅，講唔通。 **國外生產未必一定做少咗生意，因為可以傾銷去其他市場，不過美國市場夠大，就假設佢生產會減少（早兩年前中国制裁澳洲燃煤、穀物，澳洲出口亦係揾共他市場出口），但同美國政府無錢銀關係。
Cloclo
Thanks for sharing this side of arguments. I do have Asian friends who relocated to Singapore recently. While they do not like Democrats, they do share similar concerns like yours However on trump family conflict of interests , Would be keen to hear your thoughts regarding conflict of interests within democrats. Like Pelosi is one of the biggest shareholders of companies which she gets benefits (quiver quantitative in X Shared some ideas) https://x.com/quiverquant?s=21 Would be interesting to know net net what’s less dirty ….
堅離地書院 College
很高興大家可以一起熱烈討論 🙇
悉尼 袋鼠
上面我借用 chilling effect 去形容經濟情況，係講緊嗰150萬個SSN係單數嘅聯邦公務員，而家應該開始自我審查日常開支。更加貼切嘅形容詞係announcement effect — 公報新政策時，唔使等到執行，已經直接改變受影響者嘅行為。 响增加關稅方面，亦都有announcement effect情況。美國尚存嘅製造業，少不免會有零件、半製成品入口，相信佢哋已經响11月6日，向國外供應商加單，趕及明年1月20日前到達美國口岸清關。加單、囤積係要錢嘅，額外資金話唔定係來自取消年尾分紅，不過製造業佔整體經濟份數甚少，應該未至於影響聖誕消費。
悉尼 袋鼠
有乜嘢合適方法去精簡政府架構，呢樣我就唔講嘞，我剩係要講經濟影響，呢度預備定一啲背景資料 如果根據其中一個DOGE已公開嘅指引 👇，睇social security number炒人，即係唔理部門 — 唔理佢係即將被cancal嘅教育部（顧用4.1k, 2003數字†），或者係國防相關部門（772.3k），都即刻唔見一半人。 美國聯邦政府總聘用人數，接近300萬人†，炒一半人即時有150萬人失業（未計乘數效應 — 華盛頓DC將會有咖啡舖結業潮？），現時美國就業人數約1億6千多萬，即係佔就業人口 1% 左右（呢個唔係失業率）；就算攤開一年時間去裁，唔係一個細數目。 † How many people work for the federal government https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-work-for-the-federal-government/ 👇 Vivek Ramaswamy on 𝕏 · @VivekGRamaswamy On Day 1, *instantly* fire 50% of federal bureaucrats. Here’s how: if your SSN ends in an odd number, you’re fired. That downsizes government by half. Absolutely *nothing* will break as a result. It doesn’t violate civil service rules because mass layoffs are exempt. SHUT IT DOWN. 3:14 AM · Nov 13, 2023 · 10.5M Views https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1723743653816836377
Simon S Yam
Trump derangement syndrome. 😊
Simon S Yam
GBK: 「對中國加徵關稅的確唔會全部由中國支付，但係會加速外資轉移供應鏈去另外國家，中國亦都要貶值人民幣去抵抗。」 這番話說明了貿易戰的複雜，特朗普加關稅會令入口貨物增加價格從而引起美國內部的通漲，而會否加快外資廠商搬離更是複雜矛盾，起廠或搬廠是一個capital intensive 的大投資決策，費用一般都是以數年為歸本的ROI timeline, 若是人民幣貶值，不搬留下來的吸引力又加強了。所以外商一般的態度是把工廠賣掉然後再考慮在其他國家投資，導致中國製造業仍然強勁。 要真正的decoupling 就是要正式宣戰，所有美商都會走夾唔透唞…. 不過正式宣戰有很多程序又談何容易！特朗普自稱是和平愛好者 「另類希特拉，學啲唔學啲」，對宣戰更加縮沙。
Simon S Yam
悉尼袋鼠兄對美國政治有深入的瞭解，請留意DOGE和孖怪並非正式政府部門及僱員，只是Trump 的私人顧問，可以提議裁減計劃但無權執行任何行動。Trump 亦需要國會參衆兩院的支持才能改變政府機關的結構和裁員。我是independent voter, 其實同意要削政府過大開支，所以DOGE 的成立並非沒有意義。不過裁減若是全面針對監檢部門如FCC, FBI, CIA, FDA 等及國防部就有如文章說到的私德問題，本來我都會擔心，自從五位共和黨參議員聯手把Matt Gaetz的司法部長提名踢出局，我又恢復信心DOGE 和Trump 想亂嚟會有很大阻力。That is the checks and balances we all admire of US democracy! 😊😁
KTH
強烈建議所有侵黑去聽下侵同 Joe Rogan 既3個鐘頭 podcast。呢個節目連賀錦麗都唔敢接，因為實在太容易穿崩喇，一個扮嘢既人無可能3個鐘內唔穿崩。 我相信大部份投侵既人都有睇呢條片。 究竟佢係咪攬住我的奮鬥訓覺日日當聖經咁睇既人，佢係咪 narcissistic, misogynistic, brazen, banal, and chauvinistic (sympathetic to white supremacists)，佢係咪要掉低烏克蘭唔理，係咪掉低台灣唔理，係咪清零宗既 friend，係咪普京既 friend，聽完再諗下。By the way 我真心相信柯文哲真係當毛語錄係聖經， by by the way 我真心相信賀錦麗係一個共產主義者，價格控制係佢既 slip of tongue 好啦，俾埋 link 俾你地，方便你地 tap and watch 而已，無意夾硬塞嘢落你個腦度。呢條係原片，唔係二次創作或剪輯或短片或評論。 https://youtu.be/hBMoPUAeLnY?si=dMDOzvvou76kE98L
KTH
佢地唔明呢個詞語架😂
KTH
其實點解唔可以將Morning Joe visiting Trump 睇成係主流媒體同侵大和解的第一步，而偏要將呢個行為視為侵既淫威令到媒體都要歸邊，係侵既威脅令到媒體噤聲？
GBK
對中國加徵關稅的確唔會全部由中國支付，但係會加速外資轉移供應鏈去另外國家，中國亦都要貶值人民幣去抵抗，所謂嘅decoupling。一定會帶嚟世界經濟動盪，係中美競爭一部份，政治壓過經濟。
悉尼 袋鼠
究竟呢度嘅讀者，有幾多係同意特朗普所講，當佢對中国／外國開徵60%／20%關稅時，稅款全數由中国／外國支付。 至於Chilling Effect，而家美國人要做到 Timothy Snyder 所講嘅 "Do not obey in advance"，機會成本依然相對甚低。真正出現"Chilling Effect"嘅地方，反而係嗰兩位DOGE準備做嘅嘢 — 我講經濟影響，行政方面就唔講。
Cindy Q
TDS😓
KTH
Matt Gaetz 落選司法部長之後，另一提名人 Pam Bondi 仲猛料，正常過唔正常，仲要係女人，打臉啲侵黑對侵係 Misogynist （厭女？唔知點釋😂）既指控。
KTH
@沈教授 不得了喇，新聞報一位叫黃之瀚既香港人（？）出任侵侵既副國家安全顧問，哈德遜研究所出身，係咪蓬佩奧同余茂春既門生？？？ 黃之瀚將任白宮副國安顧問 與香港有淵源懂粵語對華強硬 https://news.now.com/home/international/player?newsId=584081&utm_source=nowNewsAppShare&utm_medium=referral
GBK
獨裁者欣賞獨裁者，所以Trump就會同習近平friend？咁佢2018年同中國開打貿易戰代表啲乜？佢今次競選話會再大幅增加中國關稅咁又代表啲乜？引用文章作者鍾意既希特拉例子，希特拉同蘇聯嘅史太林都係獨裁者，當佢哋互相仰慕，德國同蘇聯簽互不侵犯條約瓜分波蘭，但係點解釋之後希特拉攻打蘇聯？我個人意見認為總統大選唔係選聖人，而係選美國人民最想要嘅改變。唔好講到Trump可以隻手遮天, 如果佢真係嘅話就唔會2020年選輸。今次佢揀嗰個司法部長人選已經中箭落馬，要再揀過另外一個。無可否認Trump今次選到可以再做多啲佢想做嘅嘢，但係美國既有嘅內部制衡依然喺度，Trump冇可能可以為所欲為。
C Yip
Extremely biased opinions. Regarding the conclusion, Morning Joe's visit was an act to save his show. Ratings have dropped significantly after the election and the parent company is trying to sell MSNBC. Legacy media have lost the trust of the people.
