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【讀者分享】 AI時代，民主制度還會存在嗎？
🕑 Added 2025-04-14 02:01:01 +0000 UTC2025. A new year which scarily indicates that we are now closer to 2050 than 2000. Nobody, not even AI can accurately predict what 2050 will look like, least of all me. So, let’s take a step back, look at what we have been through, and look at the world as of now. By that, this is what the world could look like, from a macro-history point of view.
1. Human as a species evolved from all living things by developing tools for ourselves. Every time when there is a major advancement, cost is down, efficiency is up, output is up. Easy enough to understand.
2. With that in mind, literally every man-made product will be cheaper in real terms in time, when technology advances. By “in real terms”, instead of the nominal price tag, every available good is either costing lower relative to income, or more easily to access, or both. Think of flight tickets, food, clothing, gadgets.
3. There is no reason to believe the development of AI to not follow the trend. As machines replaced human in labour intensive industries, AI will be replacing human in knowledge based industries. Bankers, Accountants, Lawyers, Doctors, the highest paid professionals will be affected first but it will be trickling downwards. On the flip side, this would mean a lower cost for tailor-made banking, legal services and healthcare.
4. As AI develops to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), in the absence of government inventions, we should be witnessing a general reduction in price level, better known as a deflation. That is the same way, albeit more widespread and more influential, as what Japan is facing since 1990. I am surprised how few people are aware of, let alone discussing the deflationary effect of AI.
5. However, economics and the example of Japan tell us deflation will certainly be detrimental to the economy. The officials who control monetary policies, while having no power in halting the AI wave, are almost certainly intervening, just like what the Japanese did a decade, and also the Germans did a century ago, by quantitative easing.
6. The loosening of the monetary policy will mask the deflationary effect of technological advancement but not the oblivion of the job market. This would happen even without the existence of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), AGI is enough to drive such changes.
7. Although I am not sure if he intended to do what he said, Donald Trump is right on starting the process to repeal income tax by other taxation measures, not because it is libertarian, but based on the fact that you can not tax on things that will no longer be a factor of production.
8. There are scarily few discussions on Universal Basic Income (UBI). With the recent rate of change in the society however, either UBI or a form of negative income tax will be prevalent when a government desires to keep a functional society. A majority of white collar jobs as we know would be gone, and those remaining would either be a handful of responsibility bearing positions or regulatory ones. Both of these would continue to exist solely due to compliances, regulatory and legal reasons.
9. In many societies, social unrest would escalate especially in those which define a person with one's occupation. However, if planned properly, a society with good governance could see people working on a short week working on whatever leftover by an Al based on their interest, and enjoying their time.
10. Rosy ending, happy days…Except it is not. Technological advancement unintendedbly but inevitably implies a higher threshold in overthrowing the system or a power. Until Industrial Revolution all it needs is a big group of mobs, after that, firepower. Now all efforts would be in vain without the support from an army.
11. Meanwhile, that implies one need to be control a smaller and smaller group in order to control the entire society (Imagine what would happen in South Korea if a faction of the army sided with the president during the martial law). With Al and the immense power given to those who control Al, the cards needed to power shrink even further.
12. Democracy is invented as the most free and equal (or least worst) system but it is widely adopted top-down only because those in power chose to have that. Democracy was implemented with the belief that it is the most efficient system, or at least it empowers the people to be efficient. Compared to a dictatorship, democracies imply a smaller share of the pie to those who have the power or wealth. The fundamental idea of that is democracy would make such a pie much larger.
13. Here brings the main problem. If humans need not apply, if Al does the hard work, if humans turn to regulations or basic income, what persuades those who are in power, likely the cohort who also owns any kind of the most advanced technologies, to uphold the current democratic system?
14. If there are ASI coming soon, the conclusion would rather be simple, such intelligent would be guaranteed to be out of any human's control. But the problem if there is not, the invention of an AGI would be giving those who own that an immense power such that there exist no way yet to stop them if they would want to destroy the current social system.
15. Every society's birth rate nosedives following urbanisation, when number of kids are no longer a factor for wealth accumulation unlike in a farming society. Following industrialisation and the invention of automobiles, the population of horses are all but down. What would happen if humans need not apply?
Absolutely nobody would have read that long I bet. And I'm sorry that I have no answer to the above. That's why I ask questions. I do hope that you have an answer.
Comments
堅離地書院 College
謝謝大家踴躍回應，會分享給作者 🙏
Li Kaifong
其實這張meme的原圖與幸災樂禍完全無關，多得皮毛小知識講解。
Cat
A l是國家資產是軍力是國力會奪舍其他國家的AI⋯⋯最後用這星球的資源自行發展⋯⋯出發探索宇宙（人類是寵物）
ST
正如機器唔會完全取代人手 ，AI都唔會代替人手,例如寫有溫度嘅文字，按摩化妝，心理學家，社工，醫護，公務員，做手術...... 如果AI 替人類完成大部分工作人類，人類唔洗做申領govt basic income 維生，更只是一廂情願，痴心妄想 運用AI 後只會更剝削工人，例如以前農夫用人手耕田8個鐘，宜家用機械死做12個鐘，因為喺背後操控美人係野心家
Unsung
擁有AGI固然有immense power，但是說他們破壞社會制度還是言之尚早，再厲害的公司也不能對抗市場和資本的力量。AGI怎樣影響社會，很視乎最後什麼的Business Model行得通。 到目前為止，AI業界還是未知道AI可以如何賺錢，也就是business model還未明確。特別是訓練LLM的公司都是燒錢做R&D和燒GPU做訓練，隨便訓練一次兩星期就花幾百萬美金（還未算工資、data的成本），但是其他AI Labs都做同樣的事情，幾星期就會追過你，結果是持續地燒錢，不保證什麼，為的是留在龍虎榜多一陣子而已，API收費/Premium收費完全不足以cover AI訓練的投入，目前大廠都是燒錢，賭每一刻突然找到行得通的business model來賺錢，獨占藍海市場，把之前投入的成本賺回來，反正目前還負擔得起。 做AI應用反而好一點，節省訓練LLM的成本，集中資源做產品，但是現階段AI還是在草莽時期，產品也急劇變化，今天大家都用app 1，搞不好明天app 2出來，功能比更強大更便宜，用戶就會改用app 2，用戶粘著度也是AI業界的苦惱。
Carl Yang
悲觀的問，到時AGI/ASI 發現地球大部份資源都係用於佢哋唔需要而亦無法反抗佢哋嘅人類，為何佢哋仲要生產食物、能源、物質俾人類？
Derek So
如果教授再討論AI問題，不如在堅離地傾影視節目時同其他幾位主持一齊討論。這套作品。它是近十幾年其中一套最好表達AI型社會是甚麼模樣作品。
Unsung
LLM/Transformer is a statistical compression of our languages, where the corpus for training are mainly from the Internet, including Wikipedia, books, social media, etc. With that in mind, AI deduction / chain-of-thought can be seen as replicating the language format of reasoning found in our books, wikipedia, websites, social media, etc.
Kaikei Chan
世界會分化為極端的，AI 科技大國，AI落後國。
Kaikei Chan
之前試過用問題引導AI 得出類似答案，問題是AI是如何推導出 來？ 是因為原本就有人設想過類似結局？ 以本文作者是人類還是AI?
Gary Lee
AI 解決了供應面，但 AI 怎創造需求面？若果這個問題還未有答案，AI 響勞動力上全面取代人類我就覺得言之尚早。 舉個例，covid 令全世界發現在現今網絡科技下根本不需要 office。好喇，租咁貴，公司當然租少 d office 當然可以減掉成本。但結果發生咩事？原來全世界 d 人唔使出街返工，也會帶黎大量需求留失。除左大量 office 丟空，餐館可以減少樓面鋪位只做 uber eat，交通工具冇人搭，連帶街鋪生意縮減。到最後呢，就係你會發現明明租 office 好貴，但大公司會趕返員工返 office 😚
