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【國際關係深度評：經典復刻 🇸🇬】 《李光耀觀天下》的小國現實世界觀（一）為甚麼對美國充滿信心？
🕑 Added 2025-04-16 07:01:09 +0000 UTC李光耀 (1923-2015) 是新加坡建國總理，有「新加坡國父」之稱，本是留英劍橋大學法律高材生，回國任律師後創立人民行動黨，早年倡議新加坡加入馬來西亞，但被大馬領袖東姑逼走，才領導新加坡獨立。對內採取威權主義政策，倡導亞洲價值觀，帶領新加坡經濟起飛，成為「亞洲四小龍」之一；對外一方面加入美國主導的亞太區域合作，另一方面則積極和中國發展經濟關係。2015年病逝後，數十萬人排隊參與國葬，可見地位之超然。
新加坡在其帶領下，實現了國家獨立與經濟騰飛，更與世界各大國建立了緊密關係，縱有批評聲音，但瑕不掩瑜，李光耀本人除了被各國政要奉為上賓，也被認定是一代智者。
李光耀的遺作《李光耀觀天下》，就是他從新加坡的小國角度，對全球局勢觀察所得的總結，分析圍繞兩個核心問題：決定各地發展前景的根本要素是什麼？未來世界發展的機遇又在哪裡？這些問題是國際關係業界普遍關心，自然也希望從李氏一家之言得到啟迪。即使他的預言發表在十年前，今天回看，還是一點也不過時。
李光耀是典型的現實主義者（realist），但因為習慣了危機處處、左右逢源的小國思維，也加入了不少後天創見。在李光耀看來，影響一個國家發展趨勢的基本要素還是人口結構、經濟實力、地緣政治等傳統條件，但同時也反覆強調社會文化因素的重要性，這是他和基辛格一類傳統現實主義者的最不同之處。
例如在東亞地區，李光耀認為中國人五千年來的文化和思維傳統，決定了他們需要一個強大的中央集權政體，來確保國家的穩定繁榮，而中國共產黨政府恰好提供了這一保證，令中國政府對社會各方面保持控制能力，才能與經濟同步發展。相較而言，他認為日本將迎來第三個「失去的十年」：持續的低生育率和人口老齡化，極大限制了日本經濟發展的潛力，而日本強烈的民族純潔性、對外來移民的排斥，都將導致日本無法化解沉重的人口負擔，在國際舞台難以再扮演舉足輕重角色。
李光耀對太平洋彼岸的美國充滿信心，認為儘管受到中東戰爭和金融危機的拖累，美國仍能很快恢復實力，正是因為美國經濟相當有活力，而且體制健全。李光耀對美國經濟的樂觀主要基於四個理由：
（1）美國能夠吸引全世界的移民、特別是高質素移民，他們為美國帶來創造力與激情，抵銷了發達國家趨於安逸的心態；
（2）美國國內遍佈經濟發展都會，這些城市競相吸引資金與人才，使美國社會多元而有活力；
（3）美國企業奉行靈活的生產經營策略，能夠迅速適應全球市場的變化；
（4）美國社會有鼓勵人走向世界創業致富的文化，年輕人被視作社會創造力的核心，上向流動機遇不成問題，是為「美國夢」。
（待續）
*改編自沈旭暉《信報財經新聞》文章
Comments
lyk
But how do factors (1) to (4) come about in the first place? It started with a large unexplored piece of land, rich with resources in the right climate. Transatlantic trade made that the largest market there is. From here on good things happen. Lack of labor prompted science and innovation to solve problems at scale. With people being scarce they start treating them better. The opportunities available attracted entrepreneurial European migrants to help build the country. To keep expanding the American-led global market, trade rules favour win/win to keep everyone on side. Post war devastation in Europe gave them a free runway. It’s amazing how one good thing leads to another, that’s the magic of compounding. I think that is roughly how they got here.
GBK
我係睇咗呢本書先至知道點解美國強大。而係太平盛世下竟然會選到Trump出嚟，亦引證咗美國內部唔同勢力互相角力既激烈程度，唔係好似某大國咁死水一潭，有不停衝擊，破壞現狀，繼續改變，生命力仍然強盛。
lyk
「李光耀認為中國人五千年來的文化和思維傳統，決定了他們需要一個強大的中央集權政體」 — I don’t think he was saying this is the only way, he was saying this is what every Chinese believed for thousands of years, it would be arrogant of the Americans to think they can change that mindset, and the Chinese will figure out a way of their own. Generally we need to understand why things are the way they are in the first place before we change anything. e.g. Geography (a large, flat piece of land 中原) may have made it easier for central command and control, the size of their population may also have something to do with it. 「李光耀對美國經濟的樂觀主要基於四個理由」 — (1) attracting and retaining the best and brightest to come to America is what made America great, particularly in digital technology you don’t want to make it difficult for foreigners to come, make them feel uncomfortable being here or drive them out. On the other hand for China, the Chinese language is inherently more difficult to master and culturally more difficult for foreigners to assimilate (3) American dynamism and creativity is unmatched. The Chinese workers have a higher average capability, but Americans have more outliers. Lee commented that without a rule of law the Chinese may never achieve its optimal capacity, but given its size it will still be a formidable player even if it never gets there. (4) the business of America is business by the way it is constructed. America will still be big and strong for a long time, the question is how important it is for them to remain in the number one spot, and how keen it is for the Chinese to overtake them in a hurry, that will shape the world’s collective future. It will be a mistake for the Americans to overestimate what they can dictate, but equally a tragedy for the Chinese to repeat the same mistake made by the Germans and Japanese by challenging the Americans when they are not ready.
