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【國際關係深度評：突發評論 🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱】特朗普終於轟炸伊朗核設施：下一步會發生甚麼？

🕑 Added 2025-06-22 04:57:16 +0000 UTC

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Sylvester Choy

分析好啱，美國一直唔希望伊朗擁有核武，以色列一心想剷除伊朗，伊朗唔敢百分百肯定仲有冇底牌，各自有各自盤算未到最後一刻都唔知發展成點。

Cyrus Lee

美國行動應該點到即止，不宜完全捲入中東伊斯蘭世界呢潭渾水，伊拉克同阿富汗就係好好嘅例子。民唔民主化，由返佢哋內部玩啦…

George

Iranian leaders, outwardly unfazed by the intensifying conflict, had been sending a very bad signal to a dealmaker because they dared to challenge his patience with no leverage. Iran has no cards up its sleeve to deal with Israel’s air dominance while its own air defense and nuclear facilities are taken apart, and military targets have precisely been neutralized one after another. It also provides no answer to the strong reaction from the US and Israel to its uranium enrichment program while insisting on joining the nuclear club at all costs. The nuclear threat from a theocratic dictatorship is far from over though its nuclear weapons program may have set back for some time. In the near term, depleted missile stockpiles and weakened proxy militias limit Iran’s ability to escalate attacks on Israeli or US interests. They might reluctantly return to the negotiating table in an even weaker position, pretending to seek a diplomatic off-ramp from left-leaning European powers and the UN to derail the ongoing Israeli airstrikes in a bid to secure a little breathing space. If successful, they’ll, once recovered, resort to all sorts of asymmetric means, targeting vulnerable American and Israeli personnel and assets at home and abroad as their clandestine form of retaliation. Hence, talking to terrorists with a disproportionate big stick is part and parcel of bringing them to heel. Needless to say, Tehran's resolve to reconstitute its nuclear activities remains unshaken and fervent. The Israeli government strongly believes that this foe—who is dedicated to wiping the Jewish state off the map—isn’t going to let up on their push to get hold of the membership of the nuclear club. Once the arrow has left the bow, it can never return. Netanyahu, for the sake of the nation and himself, must follow the script when facing a real existential threat, whether it endangers only him or the Israeli people. In the short-to-medium term, more actions will emerge to destabilize the regime in an attempt to trigger a rebellious epicenter within its border, particularly by dividing its inner circle of power. The US, Israel, and the West cannot afford another nuclear blackmailer like Kim Jong Un, who has long accustomed to leveraging threats to extract benefits. Agreements with authoritarian regimes—amounting to well-written jokes in their playbooks—often lack credibility. These states routinely devise ways to circumvent commitments before signing. The “peace through strength” doctrine now faces a critical test amid perceptions of waning US influence. While some western leaders and media privately acknowledge Trump’s decision, they often adopt a moralizing stance, publicly condemning his disregard for diplomatic norms and expressing “sympathy” for victims without offering solutions. A great leader is the one who has courage to do the right thing at the right time and never gives a shit about the criticism from talkers, though Trump is still working hard to establish such a yet-to-achieve legacy.