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【國際關係深度評 🇦🇲🇦🇿🇺🇸🇷🇺🇮🇷🇹🇷】高加索「大和解」：「特朗普樂園」出現在伊朗邊境不是夢（三）

🕑 Added 2025-08-14 02:01:01 +0000 UTC

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George

In the upcoming Ukraine peace talks with Putin, Trump can strategically leverage the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal to secure his desired outcome. By offering Russia a role in the Zangezur Corridor, now rebranded as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), Trump can provide a war-stricken Russia with an opportunity to regain limited regional influence in the South Caucasus, incentivizing Putin’s cooperation to save his face and to fulfil his MAGA agendas. This corridor, which connects Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey while bypassing Russia and Iran, undermines China’s Belt and Road Initiative by offering Central Asian states an alternative trade route to European markets, reducing Beijing’s economic dominance in the region. In addition, Azerbaijan’s potential economic boom from enhanced natural resource exports through the corridor could pose a threat to Iran. A wealthier northern neighbor could attract Iranians of Azerbaijani descent in the northwestern provinces, particularly West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan and Ardabil, to secede and align with their Turkic kin. Further leverage comes from the deal’s impact on Russia’s waning regional influence, as Moscow’s failure to prevent Azerbaijan’s 2023 recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh and its deteriorating ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan—exacerbated by incidents like the alleged 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani airliner—have weakened its position. Trump can use this to pressure Putin, offering Russia’s reinclusion in the corridor’s development as a concession contingent on progress in the Ukraine talks. Moreover, the U.S.’s 99-year development rights over the corridor, coupled with bilateral economic agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan, position Washington as a key guarantor of regional stability, enhancing Trump’s diplomatic clout. However, Russia’s potential to act as a spoiler, through economic pressure or disinformation campaigns in Armenia’s 2026 elections, underscores the need for sustained U.S. engagement to ensure the deal’s success and maximize its leverage in negotiations with Putin. Meanwhile, the evolving political landscape in Central Asia and the South Caucasus—the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, Iran’s regional retreat and Russia’s declining influence—offers the U.S. a strategic opportunity to counter China’s dominance in rare-earth elements and strategic minerals. These resources are essential for everything from military weapons to electric vehicles, smart phones, and semiconductors. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan hold some of the world’s largest reserves of these critical materials. Currently, the U.S. relies on China for 70% of its rare-earth imports, creating a strategic vulnerability. By tapping into Central Asia’s abundant reserves, the U.S. can diversify its supply chain and reduce dependence on China, strengthening its geopolitical and economic position.