simonshen
patreon
【國際關係深度評🇬🇱🇺🇸🇩🇰🇪🇺】 特朗普的格陵蘭大戰略，已經成功了一半？
🕑 Added 2026-01-18 23:01:02 +0000 UTC特朗普高調申索格陵蘭主權，無論怎樣看、無論是否願意接受，他單是出口術，從客觀利益而論，已經成功了超過一半。
美國歷史上，曾經有不少政客建議過收編格陵蘭，這些故事我們曾經介紹過，而背後的理論基礎很簡單，都是美洲應該是美國後院的「門羅主義」。昔日門羅主義針對舊世界歐洲大陸，丹麥自然是舊世界的殘餘勢力，只是因為對美國不構成威脅，丹屬格陵蘭才可以繼續存在。然而今日最可能染指格陵蘭的是中國、俄羅斯，門羅主義的目標清晰，就不容再打馬虎眼。
經過一輪MAGA大外宣，現在世界各國都知道美國必須將格陵蘭納入自己的勢力範圍之內，絕對不容中俄染指，這個訊息是清晰不過的。如果丹麥和背後的歐盟要捍衛主權、捍衛北約，首先也要認同不能讓中俄乘虛而入格陵蘭這個大前提。議題設定了，日後中國再要在格陵蘭搞「一帶一路」建設、俄羅斯再要滲透格陵蘭，就變成了丹麥失職、引狼入室，美國進駐，變得堂而皇之。但如果丹麥可以有效守住，對美國而言，卻又甚至不用直接開支。無論結果如何，都是贏家。
幾個歐盟國家象徵性地派了十幾個士兵到格陵蘭，算是協助丹麥宣示主權，而這其實也是回應了特朗普的一貫主張：歐洲各國必須合理攤分美國的軍費和「保護費」。格陵蘭領土太大、人口太少，四方八面都是軟肋，丹麥一家是沒有能力守住的，但如果歐盟各國都接受了有守護格陵蘭的共同責任，美國的負擔就大為減少了。不要以為這些歐洲國家出兵格陵蘭只是要抗衡美國，要是美國真的要武力奪島，就不是那十幾個士兵可以處理的事；這個象徵性的舉動，其實也是宣示了歐盟守護格陵蘭的決心，守護的對象與其說是美國，還不如說是中俄。
特朗普威脅對反對「格陵蘭方案」的國家增加關稅，這自然是出口術，但提及關稅，卻提醒了歐盟一個客觀事實：格陵蘭是丹麥自治領土，丹麥是歐盟一部份，但格陵蘭法理上卻不屬於歐盟，而只是歐盟成員國的「Outer Countries and Territories」之一。美國對格陵蘭產品（主要是漁業產品）徵收的關稅，不用一定和丹麥看齊，而美國日後和格陵蘭單獨簽署類似美加墨貿易協定這樣的條款，有了現在的鋪墊，也是順理成章。
自從美國對格陵蘭申索主權，丹麥政府其實已經一再讓步，例如承諾美軍在格陵蘭建立更多基地，與美國簽訂資源共同開發協議，北約的歐洲國家也加強了北極行動，可以說除了正式出讓格陵蘭主權，其他一切都可以談。在特朗普眼中，主權從來都是虛的，最重要的是具體執行力。如果格陵蘭日後的所有天然資源都不能賣給敵對國家（主要是中俄），開發的投資來自丹麥補貼，守護北極的軍費由北約的歐洲國家攤分，美國卻又享有在格陵蘭的各種變相優惠，同時又不用承擔管理格陵蘭的負擔，還可以隨時用「中俄滲透格陵蘭」為名，指揮歐洲各國協防美洲大陸。這樣，難道不是更一本萬利的一個「deal」？
Comments
堅離地書院 College
主權本來的定義，從來沒有今天rigid，這是人為建構的
堅離地書院 College
The effectiveness on China is yet to be known. That's the biggest uncertainty.
George
As Churchill said, we’ve no lasting friends, no lasting enemies, only lasting interests. In Trump’s worldview, if you’ve no power or money but harbor a desire for interests, you’ve to bow to your powerful leader without trash talk. In the end, real interests stand above any empty ideologies, and it’s these interests—not rhetoric—that shape the course of allies. Trump thinks this principle will steer events toward his desired direction, reinforced by his belief that opponents have no card left to play since no third party can offer a better deal or change the game. Through a MAGA lens, his calculation cannot be dismissed as entirely insane. The blunt fact is that Germany, after Trump posed a 10% tariff threat, perfectly demonstrated its realism—if not obedience—by pulling its group of "15 boy scouts" out of Greenland less than 48 hours after their arrival.
Roger Lo
Maybe Prof Shen knows a lot more behind the scene information to extrapolate that EU will turn down other countries interest to Greenland. The 10% tariff is a real threat and pits off more voters in EU. Trump is definitely turning more friends to Yankee haters. Canada is making deals with other countries to lessen dependency to US. EU may follow. What countires are left to be friendly to US ? Likely some of those poorer South American states
Good Year
應該係囉到梗係好, 囉唔到逼到你地做野都係好
Frank Wong
如果這樣照理應該鼓勵歐洲派更多軍力到格陵蘭，為什麼反而針對派兵的國家進行關稅懲罰？他真的完全只為自衛而沒有擴張領土的野心？
George
The essence of the Donroe Doctrine is to achieve political ends at a minimum cost and in so short a time. Trump and his MAGA team treat performative gestures staged by free‑rider allies—strictures that have failed to produce any effect on their determination to protect US national security and interests—with open contempt. Trump places his faith in success on the basis of discord within the EU and its reliance on US defense in the face of the Russian threat. Since his return, Trump has been pushing boundaries at home and abroad, catching allies and adversaries off guard time after time: from the suspension of federal funding for elite universities to ICE's heavy-handed crackdowns on illegal immigration; from flexing US economic muscle through the Liberation Day tariffs as a political weapon against trading partners to a forceful drive in technology spanning AI, quantum computing, and domestic chips manufacturing, as well as an upheaval in energy policy, and the resumption of space programs; from the precise strike against Iran’s nuclear sites, the cease-fire plan in Gaza to the capture of Nicolás Maduro via a crisp military operation, among others. If he succeeds this time, the US will be reestablished as a truly sole superpower, capable of setting its own agenda and crafting a new world order, with mainland China being pushed into the role of a distant runner-up—its only consolation is yet keeping its edge in rare mineral mining and refining. NATO, in turn, will be further subordinated to US power, reduced to a mere instrument in his overarching strategy.
Pickles
百份百同意，高級專業化妝師
KTH
沈教授越來越能睇穿侵既真實意圖。 但有個疑問，侵只係慫恿格陵蘭獨立，但係獨立咗之後未必一定加入美國架喎，到時格陵蘭人再吊高黎賣，借中俄做餌引你美國出多啲錢，呢度係咪存在好大不確定性？
Good Year
佢有意逼歐盟註軍, 逼歐盟參與格陵蘭防務 有意逼歐盟唔比中俄入場, 仲要係唔洗用自己隻手, 唔洗自己比錢。
Ken Wong
「在特朗普眼中，主權從來都是虛的，最重要的是具體執行力。」 的確打破咗一般盲點，尤其當某啲國家經常強調「堅決維護國家主權」
James Green
我就唔明，如果佢其實無意佔領格靈蘭，何必擺到勢在必行，搞到神憎鬼厭
ng501kai
這陣子看Simon寫的評論跟以前Trump第一次上任時的評論作比較，我極度懷疑Simon已成秘密侵粉
