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Next Fed Chair Wager
🕑 Added 2025-12-04 07:37:24 +0000 UTCPresident Trump says that he'll announce the Fed Chair nominee in early 2026. The current Fed Chair, J Powell, has his term expiring in May of 2026.
I want to EMPHASIZE and STRESS that I am making a VERY SMALL wager on a longshot, Christopher Waller, to be nominated as the next Fed Chair.
It's at 5% odds, which means that the payout would be 20 to 1.
This wager was done on the predictions market on Robinhood.
I plan on getting some more, but I didn't want to jack up the contract price in case anyone else is interested. I personally wouldn't buy the contract if it's above 10 cents.
LET THIS BE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR... the odds are that I will lose. At the risk of me looking like an idiot and losing, I am still taking this wager because I see positive EV in this bet because I think the odds are too low for Waller.
The leading candidate, Hassett, may have issues with Fed independence or perceived Fed independence, which may be problematic for Senate confirmation (even though it's a Republican controlled Senate that only requires simple majority). And there may be issues of Hassett failing to influence the other Fed voting members to carry-out Trump's agenda.
I like Waller as a potential winner because Waller:
- is currently serving on the Federal Reserve Board as a Governor and voting member and already has earned the respect of the other voting members (which will help to influence them as Chair because he already has the credibility)
- was nominated by President Trump in 2020
- dissented at the July Fed meeting when the Fed did not cut rates (Waller voted to cut rates), Waller has a dovish tilt
- had a positive second-round interview with Bessent
Reasons why the nominee may not be Waller:
- "news leaks" say that Hassett is the favorite
- Waller was more dovish about rate cuts (which is what Trump wants) but he's not a Trump-aligned figure (Trump highly values loyalty, even over experience)
- Hassett is more dovish than Waller
I don't think Warsh is a contender because:
- is less dovish than Hassett and Waller
- has criticized Trump's pressure on the Fed
- there is a lack of internal support for Warsh inside the Fed
- Warsh has been away from the Fed for a long time (about 10 years)
Warsh is considered a "legacy" candidate, not an active one. He's not at the Treasury, Fed, or Trump's administration.
If you're going to enter this trade, make sure it's a small one. Don't do anything stupid.
Comments
Dan
I’m in CA and I use Robinhood for this market prediction
Steve Pool
How do we use poly market in California? Are people using a VPN or?
Cody Niles
Now this is just straight up gambling. Hope everyone reads and understands this entire post before jumping in.
