ClearValue Investing
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Positions Update - 1/5/2026
🕑 Added 2026-01-05 23:42:37 +0000 UTCI just want to share my opinion on our current positions.
This is a longer post, so if you don't have the time, you should just review the ones you're interested in.
Options:
AG 1/9/26 $14 Put (Shorted): this is going to expire Friday. The position is up 97.5%. There's only 2.5% of gains remaining to capture. I'm just going to let it expire worthless. AG is at $17.15, which means it stands a snowball's chance in hell of dropping below $14 by Friday.
AEM 1/16/26 $155 Put (Shorted): this is expiring in 9 trading days. The position is up 90.95%. The plan is to let it expire worthless and capture the full 100%. Right now, AEM is sitting at $175.38. I'm not concerned about this dropping below $155 in 9 trading days.
BTG 1/16/26 $4.50 Put (Shorted): this is expiring in 9 trading days. The position is up 50.0%. This position has me somewhat concerned, here's why... The Q4 & 2025 annual results won't be released until later in February (sometime around Feb. 20th). However, BTG gives a short synopsis of Q4 & 2025 results before then. In prior years, it's been around January 16th - January 27th.
If by chance they release that news on 1/16/26 during trading hours and their results comes in below estimates, that will hurt the stock price in the short-run and on 1/16/26, which I really don't care about for my BTG stock because my plan is to hold BTG into 2027. However, this BTG options position is expiring on 1/16/26 and we're close to the strike price of $4.50. Honestly, I don't want BTG to go below $4.50 on 1/16/26 and trigger an assignment where I must buy the shares at $4.50 (because I already have a larger BTG exposure in stock).
Right after this post, I'm going to try to close this position for $0.05 (right now it's at $0.15). I'm going to put in a limit order, good-until-canceled (GTC) to buy it back for $0.05 to close the position. We sold it for $0.30, therefore, buying to close it would result in an 83.3% gain. I'm doing this as a precautionary measure given the circumstances.
If it does drop below $4.50 on 1/16/26, then I'll take the shares, and then I'll write a covered call on those shares at $4.50 or higher (to get rid of them, I don't want excessive exposure to BTG).
ETFs:
GLD: I'm just holding and will continue to hold. No change in opinion.
SLV: I'm continuing to hold. No change in opinion. The gold to silver ratio (GSR) is currently at 57. I'm not remotely interested in selling if the GSR is 50+.
I get a lot of questions about my opinion on leveraged ETFs for gold and silver. I would stay away from those. The math works against you. If silver goes from $75/oz to $85/oz and back to $75/oz, you'll be down a noticeable amount (because of how the math works in leveraged ETFs - GLD & SLV are not leveraged ETFs).
Stocks:
BULL: My initial entry into BULL was $8.55. Right now, it's at $8.60. When it dipped the past few days, I put in a GTC limit order for $7.60.
I know some people here got it on the dip and are up a good amount in just a few days. Unfortunately, my buy order did not trigger. I'm just going to leave the buy order open for the time being. I'm just going to hold for now, waiting to see the Q4 2025 results and 2026 forecast (to be released sometime in February).
BTG: This is a long-term investment I plan on holding into 2027. The short-term movements don't bother me (except for my options positions).
From January 16th to end of January, they will give their summary of production for Q4 2025 and full-year 2025. I don't know what the numbers will be. I don't know how the market will react. As a long-term holder, it won't change my opinion.
Their pre-pay deal (to finance their Canada mine) runs from July 2025 to June 2026. If the price of gold maintains, they will see a HUGE boost in revenue, cash-flow, and profit starting Q3 of 2026. Essentially, that deal is slightly more than halfway done from concluding. Anything over $4,000/oz in Q3 2026 and beyond would be an enormous boost to their finances. If gold is at $4,500/oz or $5,000/oz, then it would be even better.
AEM: BTG is a mid-tier gold miner. AEM is a large gold miner. AEM is more diversified in geographic zones and is less risk but less reward compared to BTG. I see AEM as a good way to get gold exposure and beat the percentage rise in gold (if gold continues to go up).
Watchlist:
SIL: In the event of a substantial pullback in silver, I will go after the silver miners. I think the best way to do that will be through the silver miners ETF (SIL).
XOM: My opinion is that oil's sell-off is overdone. You would think that would drag down the price of XOM, but it hasn't. I'm trying to establish a larger position in XOM, however, the price is not budging downward. Any general market weakness and I'll be looking to get into XOM (if the price is right).
RGLD: Royal Gold is another good way to get gold exposure. Royal Gold does gold stream/royalties (mostly streams). They almost qualify to be in the S&P 500 because it's an American company and they're close to the size requirement (RGLD is valued at $19 billion, S&P 500 inclusion requirement is around $23 billion). Many of the miners have Canadian headquarters.
If gold continues to run-up, RGLD may have a good shot of being included into the S&P 500 which would boost the stock price (because of all the passive money flowing into it). About 10 companies are swapped into/out of the S&P 500 each year.
I like RGLD as much as AEM. But RGLD is just another way to diversify within gold because RGLD is a stream/royalty company; AEM is a gold miner.
If you want more diversification within gold exposure, having both AEM & RGLD would definitely be acceptable. Currently, I do not have RGLD, but will look to get in on a dip.
BULL: GTC limit buy order of $7.60 is still outstanding.
Comments
Stacy Smith
BLOOMBERG commodities index BCOM is rebalancing its index and it’s expected that there will be some forced selling AKA price pullback so I’m going to keep an eye until after 1/18 to buy in. What are your thoughts?
Scott
Brian, what do you think about selling weekly covered calls on SLV to hedge my position on these down days?
