Naked Universe of Ana
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Fermi Paradox: the numbers dont match reality
🕑 Added 2025-08-02 17:18:31 +0000 UTCIn 1961, Frank Drake proposed an equation to estimate the number of civilizations in our galaxy capable of making contact:
N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L
There are many opinions about most parameters, but here are the values Drake lused in 1961:
R* = 1/year (one star forms every year)
fp = 0.5 (half of the stars have planets)
ne = 2 (on average, two planets per system are suitable for life)
fl = 1 (if life is possible, it will definitely appear)
fi = 0.01 (1% chance that life evolves into intelligence)
fc = 0.01 (1% of civilizations can and want to communicate)
L = 10 000 years (a technologically advanced civilization lasts for about 10 000 years, based on Earth)
Plugging in the numbers:
N = 1 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10 000
N = 1
Even with these conservative values, there should be AT LEAST one civilization in our galaxy capable of making contact besides us.
So where the hell are they?
If even one of them appeared millions of years ago and started colonizing the galaxy (even with automatic probes traveling at 10% the speed of light), it would take only 10–100 million years to cover the entire Milky Way.
But the galaxy is 13 billion years old and… silence.
Possible answers:
We are alone. Intelligent life is extremely rare.
Civilizations dont survive. The Great Filter (wars, disasters, AI, your mom not letting you out of the yard).
They exist but stay silent. The dark forest hypothesis: making noise can get you killed.
We are looking in the wrong way or in the wrong place. Their technologies may be unrecognizable to us.
Why it matters
The Fermi paradox is a mirror: either we are insanely unique (what a narcissistic thought💅), or there is a point in the development of civilizations after which almost no one survives.
And the main question:
did we already pass that filter, or is it still ahead of us?
Comments
Ana
We a just lucky I think and not alone I'm sure
CH
The nature of the filter is the question, isn't it? I'm inclined to think that there are more oddities about Earth that make life even more rare- right temperature for liquid water; early collision that a) left an iron core to create a magnetic field, b) left a large moon to create tides, c) knocked us off our axial tilt to create seasons; a monster like Jupiter eating up or diverting comets, etc. Maybe that's just wishful thinking that the filter isn't ahead of us.
Ana
Probably....
The Leo
🥰🙌🏽🫶🏽
Florin
If they come …we die,its simpler :)
